Seminarios del IPP: "Anti-Austerity Riots in Late Developing States: Evidence from the 1977 Egyptian Bread Intifada”
Por Neil Ketchley (Universidad de Oslo)
Abstract: Anti-austerity riots are common in late developing states, where labor markets are often dualized as a result of import substitution and political coalitions centered on the formally employed. Building on insider-outsider and moral economy frameworks from political economy, we theorize that labor market insiders develop expectations about welfare provision that make them more likely to riot when confronted with austerity measures. We test our argument with the case of Egypt during the 1977 Bread Intifada, when the announcement of subsidy cuts sparked rioting across the country. To conduct our analysis, we match an original event catalog drawn from Arabic-language media with disaggregated employment data. Spatial models and rich micro-level data help us to disentangle the importance of an area’s labor force from its location and wider socioeconomic context. As we show, rioting was concentrated in areas where formal insiders lived. There is no evidence that rioting was patterned by deprivation.
Bio: Neil Ketchley is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo. His work focuses on protest and revolution in the Arabic-speaking Middle East and North Africa. Neil's first book, Egypt in a Time of Revolution (2017 Cambridge University Press), was co-winner of the American Sociological Association’s 2018 Charles Tilly Distinguished Contribution to Scholarship Book Award. His articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics, and Political Research Quarterly. Neil has previously Lecturer in Middle East Politics at King's College London and was a Hulme Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Brasenose College, University of Oxford. He received his PhD in Political Science from the London School of Economics.
Organiza: Francisco Herreros (IPP-CSIC)