Abstract. Although no consensus on the issue exists yet, some evidence indicates that people are typically overprecise in their inferences. In particular, subjective confidence intervals are often too narrow when compared with Bayesian ones. This paper uses a quasi-Bayesian theory and lab experiments to explore overprecision when people learn about the empirical frequency of some random event.

Abstract: This letter reports the results of a study that combined a unique natural experiment and a local randomization regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of polls on turnout intention. We found that the release of a poll increases turnout intention by 5%. This effect is robust to a number of falsification tests of predetermined covariates, placebo outcomes, and changes in the time window selected to estimate the effect.

Abstract

Objective

Scrutinize how the three main sources of knowledge inequalities, namely, gender, age, and education, relate to the content, format, and object of the survey items used to measure knowledge

Methods

Using a pooled data set encompassing 106 postelection surveys in 47 countries from the CSES, we perform analyses by stacking the data at the question level.

Results

Abstract. To what extent does conventional survey measurement capture the political interest of men and women equally well? We aim to answer this question by relying on unique data from a national online survey in Spain, where we used various questions unpacking the standard indicator of political interest. The findings show that men and women nominate different personal political interests. We also find that the gender gap in political interest vanishes once these specific interests are taken into account.

Abstract. We present a set of studies the objective of which was to test the robustness of the acknowledgment of earned entitlement effect across different experimental modes and populations. We present three sets of results. The first is derived from a between-subject analysis of two independent, but comparable samples of nonstudent adults. One sample participated in a standard, behavioral laboratory experiment and the other participated in a survey experiment. The two methods returned similar treatment effects.