Fraile M. & Lewis-Beck M.S. (2014) Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011. European Journal of Political Research 53(1): 160–179

Abstract. While the economic vote exists in Western democracies, the question of its stability remains a subject of controversy. This article focuses on two possible factors behind the instability observed: the endogeneity problem and the restricted variance problem. The former concerns the influence of partisan thinking on economic perception, while the latter concerns the influence of economic crisis, when virtually all voters may perceive a bad economy. These problems are examined using panel data from the Spanish national elections of 2008 and 2011.