Brugarolas, P., & Miller, L. (2021). The Causal Effect of Polls on Turnout Intention: A Local Randomization Regression Discontinuity Approach. Political Analysis, 1-7
Abstract: This letter reports the results of a study that combined a unique natural experiment and a local randomization regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of polls on turnout intention. We found that the release of a poll increases turnout intention by 5%. This effect is robust to a number of falsification tests of predetermined covariates, placebo outcomes, and changes in the time window selected to estimate the effect.